With the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, the air transport is alert to possible implications for e-commerce. This new era could see significant changes in trade policies, particularly regarding the reduction of customs duty exemptions for low-value imports. These adjustments could disrupt the current dynamic and pose considerable challenges in terms of volumes and of costs, as well as consequences on the speed and efficiency of deliveries by air.
The likely arrival of Donald Trump at the White House could have significant repercussions on the air transport of goods linked to e-commerce. Policy changes, such as removing the de minimis exemption for certain imports, could result in lower cargo volumes and longer delivery times. In addition, the implementation of high customs tariffs could further burden this sector. This article explores the various aspects of these potential repercussions.
Potential changes in import policy
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With the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, import policy could undergo notable changes. The Trump administration is reportedly considering restructuring the de minimis exemption, which currently allows the importation of goods worth less than $800 without tariffs. This exemption facilitates rapid clearance through customs, essential for the e-commerce sector. If this rule is changed, particularly for Chinese imports, it could cause a substantial reduction in air transport volumes.
Implications for air transport delays and costs
A change to the de minimis rule would be accompanied by an increase in administrative costs and an extension of delivery times. Currently, these packages pass through customs quickly, delivered within a few days. Tighter requirements could extend these deadlines to two or three weeks, which would be unattractive for e-commerce customers accustomed to speed. Additionally, rising customs declaration costs for low-value goods would call into question the profitability of air transport for these shipments.
Impact of customs tariffs on air transport
Donald Trump’s plans include implementing high tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, reaching up to 60%. Although these tariffs mainly affect maritime transport, air transport could feel the effects if a delivery emergency arises, particularly due to the reduced capacity of container ships. However, the transition to air transport would remain limited for large volumes, the costs being too high.
Possible strategies of e-commerce businesses
E-commerce businesses will need to adapt to these changes by adjusting their supply chains. Some could decide to move forward their shipments, causing a spike in demand, while others could reduce volumes transported on certain routes, such as that between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, companies could increase their storage capacities in countries close to the United States, such as Mexico or Canada, to maintain their price competitiveness.
Historical Background and Future Plans of the Trump Presidency
During his first term, Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on Chinese imports, reaching their peak during the 2018-2019 trade war, with duties of more than 25%. This initially boosted air travel, before a decline in 2019 due to rising costs for consumers. Trump’s plans for a second term could repeat this pattern, with a more pronounced impact on shipping, without ruling out the emergence of mixed sea-air solutions for some shippers requiring rapid delivery.
Impacts of the future Trump presidency on the air transport of e-commerce goods
| Appearance | Potential Impact |
| De minimis exemption | Potential removal for imports under $800 |
| Customs tariffs | Increase in tariffs on Chinese imports |
| Reporting costs | Increase in customs declaration costs |
| Transit time | Increased delivery times |
| Freight volume | Reduction in e-commerce merchandise volumes |
| Diversion to other modes | Increased use of sea-air solutions |
| Market Capacity | Strategic capacity management by companies |
| Strategic Sourcing | Creation of stocks close to consumers |
| Domestic investments | Increased investment in local logistics |
| Buyer reaction | Adapting supply chains |
- De minimis exemption: Change of rules for imports below $800.
- Increased costs: Potentially higher customs tariffs of 7% to 60%.
- Reduced air cargo: Likely drop in volumes of e-commerce parcels by air.
- Administrative charges: Increased delays and customs formalities.
- Extended delivery time: Two to three weeks compared to seven to nine days previously.
- Inventory strategies: Increase in inventories close to final destinations.
- Speed variation: Reduced appeal of speed of air freight.
- Pressure on maritime capacity: Possible shift towards sea-air solutions.